Lithuania’s security reality, told plainly – for those who still care what happens back home.
When someone says the word threat, it can mean different things depending on where you are. For Lithuania, the understanding is profoundly shaped by history. That’s why when Vice Minister of National Defence Tomas Godliauskas speaks, those with ties to the homeland – especially the Lithuanian diaspora – should pay close attention.
In a recent conversation with journalist Vilma Kava, published in the Draugas newspaper, Godliauskas provided a straightforward answer about how Lithuania perceives current threats and the actions being taken. His remarks also provide clear signals to the Lithuanian National Guard and allies abroad who are ready to step up if needed.
Here’s the exchange, word for word.
Q: Mr. Vice Minister, what are the main threats currently facing Lithuania’s national security, and how does the Ministry of National Defence assess them?
In response, I’d like to note that we in Lithuania may understand threats a bit differently than the Western world.
First, for us, it is Russia and Belarus. We assess emerging dangers through a long-term historical and cultural perspective. Through our past, we understand the enemy at the gate.
Secondly, we feel the regional threats stemming from Russia’s military actions in Ukraine.
The spectrum of threats in our region is broad. It includes the use of migration in recent years as a tool to destabilize internal order. We also see frequent attempts to violate airspace and test our borders. For example, GPS signal disruptions in the Suwałki Gap and the vulnerability of critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.
We register many so-called “gray zone” threats – these require us to have ready defence forces and also a prepared crisis and incident management system across the state. We must continue developing a system that can respond to both internal and external threats.
It’s critical that our response involves coordination between the Ministry of National Defence, the Lithuanian Armed Forces, and all relevant institutions – border patrol, police, and the Lithuanian National Guard.
We also look into the future, assessing threats that may arise in months, years, or even decades.
This year, Lithuania’s intelligence services presented their 2025 National Threat Assessment (downloadable PDF) to the public.
We observe that developments in Russia – military restructuring, growth of their defence industry, aggressive rhetoric and policy – are a real concern for regional security.
The coming three to four years are very important. As a country, and as part of NATO, we must build capabilities to face even serious conventional threats.
As mentioned, Belarus acts in alignment with Russia, using hybrid tactics against our region.
Our national threat assessment is public, and I encourage Lithuanians abroad to read it – available on the Ministry’s website in Lithuanian and English.
We also highlight growing Chinese interest in the region, especially through cyberattacks and data collection.
In summary, Lithuania must have integrated defence capabilities, working with NATO, and clear plans and tools that can function in extreme situations.
Why This Matters to the Lithuanian Diaspora
Godliauskas’ words aren’t aimed at just internal defence officials. This is a call for awareness and readiness for Lithuanians abroad, including those in the U.S. and Canada. When threats like GPS jamming, migration manipulation, or energy sabotage are happening near Suwałki or in the Baltic Sea, it’s not just a military matter. It also becomes a diaspora matter.
Many in the Lithuanian National Guard, formed by exile communities, already understand this. But for those still wondering how they can contribute, this kind of clear-eyed leadership from the Ministry shows what needs to be supported: real defence planning, unity across agencies, and readiness not just for war, but for disruption.
Looking Ahead
Godliauskas made one point especially clear: the next three to four years are critical. That means now, not later, is the time for Lithuanians around the world to decide how they’ll respond.
Some might join organizations like the Lithuanian National Guard. Others may help by keeping information flowing, organizing support, or countering misinformation. The Ministry isn’t just protecting borders – it’s asking for trust and innovative collaboration from its extended family worldwide.
Vilma Kava is a Lithuanian-American author and journalist with a strong interest in Lithuanian culture and history. She has written two books that explore Lithuania’s heritage and traditions. Vilma regularly writes for Draugas newspaper, offering articles that resonate with the Lithuanian diaspora. She also contributes to the Lithuanian National Guard Facebook page, sharing stories and content that promote community engagement and cultural awareness.
